Trilogy Polo Club: Home Prices & Market Trends

Saved analysis from the shared market release. Historical research keeps its original dates.

Original study · October 2, 2026

The research behind the numbers.

Updated October 2, 2026 (Pacific). Closed-sale study: October 1, 2024–September 30, 2026. Prior: October 1, 2024–September 30, 2025. Latest: October 1, 2025–September 30, 2026. Inventory and its supply ratios remain the September 15, 2026 snapshot. Older annual history and repeat-sale studies retain their stated source dates.

How to read this study

The refreshed closed-sale study covers October 1, 2024–September 30, 2026, with equal, non-overlapping October–September years. The 129-sale sample retains the established community definition. The July 1–September 30 quarter is reported separately below.

Annual history through 2024 and the explicitly dated repeat-sale studies retain their original source coverage. Closed-sale metrics through September 30 and the September 15 inventory snapshot use different observation dates; inventory has not been refreshed.

Six guardrails matter. The figures are nominal and not adjusted for inflation. Annual medians compare different homes rather than tracking one property. The 2015 sample contains only seven closings, and 2026 is year to date. Verified builder sales are separated where that distinction changes interpretation, but private, off-market and unrecorded direct-builder transfers may still be absent. Builder options and reporting practices can distort days-on-market and sale-to-list measurements. MLS age-restriction flags conflict on repeated properties, so this report does not divide pricing into 55+ and all-ages categories without a separately verified parcel map.

What private-pool sales show

What private-pool sales show

In the two-year sample, 39 sales carry an explicit pool marker. Their median was $850,000 and $419.71 per square foot, versus $609,500 and $348.43 among 90 records without that marker. Features overlap and missing coding does not prove absence. These are comparison groups, not isolated feature premiums.

Explicit private-pool marker

Median Closed Price$850,000

Sales

39

Median Price Per Sq. Ft.

$419.71

Median Living Area

2,223 sq. ft.

Median days on market

47

No private-pool marker

Median Closed Price$609,500

Sales

90

Median Price Per Sq. Ft.

$348.43

Median Living Area

1,847 sq. ft.

Median days on market

76.5

Trilogy Polo Club home buying study guide

Four phases in the recorded sales history

1. Early MLS history and small launch-era samples: 2015–2018

The first recorded close occurred on April 29, 2015. The annual samples began with only seven sales in 2015, 13 in 2016, 18 in 2017 and 23 in 2018. Those years contain builder-era reporting, changing plan availability and different stages of the community's development.

The median moved from $457,004 in partial-year 2015 to $429,200 in 2016, then increased to $507,541 in 2017 and $509,500 in 2018. Median price per square foot rose from $225.36 in 2016 to $281.20 in 2018. The samples document transactions, but they are not stable same-home benchmarks.

2. More MLS volume and a changing product mix: 2019–2020

Recorded closings increased to 44 in 2019 and 63 in 2020. Yet the annual median measured $448,837 and $454,990—below 2018—while median living area and the mix of compact, paired, detached, legacy and builder sales continued to change.

The important lesson is not that every Polo Club home lost value. It is that expanding transaction coverage and a changing product ladder can pull a community-wide median in a direction that does not describe any one plan.

3. Pandemic-era repricing: 2021–2022

The sharpest move in the series arrived from 2021 to 2022. The median increased 32.7%, from $527,500 to $700,000, while median price per square foot increased 25.8%, from $293.86 to $369.61.

Marketing conditions tightened at the same time. Median MLS days on market fell to 29 in 2021 and measured 37 in 2022, while the median sale-to-final-list ratio reached 100% in both years. Recorded volume fell from 67 closings in 2021 to 43 in 2022, but the homes that did close established a much higher price level.

4. Post-surge reset and a wider market: 2023–September 2026

The 2023 median fell 10.8% from the 2022 high to $624,433. It then recovered to $637,500 in 2024 and $662,950 in 2025. The 2025 median remained 5.3% below the 2022 peak, while 2025 median price per square foot was 0.8% above 2022. A smaller 2025 median home size helps explain why those two measures tell different stories.

The refreshed 2025 calendar year contains 62 closings at a $662,950 median. January 1–September 30, 2026 contains 59 at $640,000, with $350.66 median sold price per square foot and 59 valid median DOM. The 2026 year remains incomplete; its count should not be compared directly with a full calendar year.

What the same-home resales show

Historical study: August 6, 2026 analysis using closings through July 27, 2026. The long-term matched-property results below are retained from that study.

Annual medians have a composition problem. A year with more large pool homes can post a higher median even if comparable smaller homes changed very little. To move closer to a like-for-like test, the audit matched sequential sales using the same normalized street number and street name. It accepted an APN change when the address remained the same, rejected a shared APN when the addresses differed, required at least a one-year holding period, limited the set to records whose reported living area differed by no more than 2% and required private-pool status to remain unchanged.

That conservative method produced 76 high-confidence pairs across 62 properties:

The all-history result is boosted by homes that crossed the 2020–2022 repricing. The more recent subset provides a useful reality check: pairs resold during 2025–2026 had a lower 2.77% median nominal annualized change. Among 15 qualifying pairs resold in 2026 alone, the median was +5.1% total across 3.18 years, or +2.16% annualized; 11 sold higher, three lower and one flat.

This is stronger evidence than comparing annual community averages, but it is not a formal repeat-sales index. The test does not control for renovation, unreported pool work or classification errors, lot or view differences, furnishings, solar obligations, Club-transfer economics, distress, seller concessions, financing, transaction expenses or inflation. It also excludes homes that did not resell through the MLS.

The defensible conclusion is modest: same-home outcomes were usually positive across the full record, but recent gains were smaller and several homes resold lower or flat. These figures describe gross price change, not net investment return after improvements and selling costs.

What this report deliberately does not claim

The change in a community median is not the appreciation or depreciation of every home. Different sold groups, sparse cohorts, incomplete feature fields and relistings limit precision. MLS coverage can omit private, direct-builder and differently labeled transactions.

No universal pool, golf, view or renovation adjustment follows from these tables. Asking prices are seller expectations, and dated supply ratios are historical snapshots. Current HOA fees, rules, age restrictions, assessments and solar terms require property-specific confirmation.

Historical HOA or Club dues from MLS fields

Trilogy Polo Club home buying study guide

What the data mean for buyers and sellers

Use the $645,000 latest median as market context. Start a property comparison with the same plan or a narrow living-area range, then account for condition, renovation, private pool, view, golf frontage, casita, privacy and other material differences.

The latest sample closed at a median 97.35% of final list, while 49.3% of valid records had already reduced. Sellers should evaluate the original ask and full listing history as well as the final negotiation. The retained inventory tables describe September 15 conditions; verify availability before using them for a current decision.